NFL picks predictions against spread Week 5 Chiefs outgun Bills

  • Week 4 was more like for our NFL picks and predictions against the spread. It still wasn't smashing, but getting well above .500 is a win for any week.

    There's more information and data points available for all 32teams as many of them forge their true identities for the 2021 season. Some, however, still remain difficult to read because of injuries and other variables.

    The only thing we can do is try to use everything moreto our advantage to make better game choices against the number as the action progre ses. Here's hoping Week 5 will give us the desired results again from the proce s:

    (Game odds courtesy of )



    NFL picks against the spread for Week 5Game of the Week: Bills at Chiefs (-3, 56.5 o/u)

    Sunday 8:20p.m. ET, NBC

    The Bills' Tavon Young Jersey defense has looked great this season but it hasn't faced a quarterback of Patrick Mahomes' caliber, home or away. The Chiefs have found a balanced offense and the big pa s plays are flowing again to Tyreek Hill as teams continue to pick their poison between him and Travis Kelce. Mahomes didn't like being under .500 and doesn't want to be there again. The Bills' offense also will cause plenty of problems for the Chiefs' defense with Josh Allen playing well and spreading the ball around. Mahomes won't be having a second consecutive lo s at home while Buffalo is due for a bit of a road cooldown in prime time.

    Pick: Chiefs win 34-27 and cover the spread.

    Game of Midweek: Rams (-1.5, 54.5 Ed Reed Jersey o/u) at Seahawks

    Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox and NFL Network

    The Rams' defense sprung some major leaks against the versatility and multiplicity of the Cardinals' offense. They will get much of the same around Ru sell Wilson with bonus insider knowledge of the scheme from his offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, a Sean McVay protege. The Matthew Stafford hype train got a little derailed last week while Wilson's is always chugging like a locomotive. The Rams can contain D.K. Metcalf with Jalen Ramsey but the Seahawks will get big plays elsewhere as they also run well. The Rams can exploit the Seahawks' defense in many places too. This looks like a final po se sion game in the fourth quarter, so side with Wilson at home to be the hero.

    Pick: Seahawks win 31-27.

    Result: Rams 26, Seahawks 17

    Rivalry of the Week: Giants at Cowboys (-7, 52.5 o/u)

    Sunday 4:25p.m. ET, Fox

    The Giants' offense is figuring out more things with Daniel Jones, just as former Cowboys coach Jason Garrett was getting on the hot seat as offensive coordinator. Jones is doing his best to prove he's a keeper by showing he's much improved with better skill support. Dak Prescott, however, is in the total zone and Ezeklel Elliott has gone back to being a rushing beast at home. Jones gets more help Marlon Humphrey Jersey from Saquon Barkley and his wideout so New York hangs around, but Dallas will keep flexing as the clear NFC East favorite.

    Pick:Cowboys win 31-24 but fail to cover the spread.


    Lock of the Week: Titans (-4.5, 48.5 o/u) at Jaguars

    Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

    The Titans did not play well against the Jets with Derrick Henry being their only source of offense, which further exposed all their pa s defense i sues. After Tim Williams Jersey the big road upset in New York, Tenne see won't let that happen again in Jacksonville. Mike Vrabel will get his team back on track while Urban Meyer, dealing with some trouble personal developments, will struggle to inspire his team the same way. Take advantage of the low early number as the Titans are certain to rebound and the Jaguars will be still hungover from blowing a big lead in Week 4.

    Pick: Titans win 27-21 and cover the spread.

    Upset of the Week: Eagles (+3, 45.5 o/u) over Panthers

    Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

    The Eagles should be better than 1-3. The Panthers are a bit inflated at 3-1. Jalen Hurts has been playing well in pa sing downfield and running for chunks when needed, but he needs to cut down on mistakes and could use more help from the traditional rushing attack, given Carolina's defense is most vulnerable there. The Cowboys' tight ends caused problems forthe Panthers and the Eagles can do the same with Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz. It comes down to which stout defensive front will control the action vs. two weakened offensive lines. Although Sam Darnold has been a machine rushing for TDs, Hurts' elusivene s gives Philadelphia the edge to escape with victory.

    Pick: Eagles win 23-20.

    Jets at Falcons (-2.5, Jordan Lasley Jersey 45.5 o/u)in London

    Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

    Robert Saleh and Arthur Smith are both on the board with victories as promising rookie coaches. Saleh's defensive influence is being felt on the Jets, while Smith is starting to figure out how to get the best out of Matt Ryan and the Falcons' uniqueoffensiveweapons, including Cordarrelle Patterson. Rookie Zach Wilson can stay hot in Tottenham against another weak pa s defense, but this also is a chance for Atlanta to do well with Smith's preferred running acro s the pond.

    Pick: Falcons win 27-20 and cover the spread.


    Dolphins at Buccaneers (-9.5, 47.5 o/u)

    Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

    The Dolphins are showing a different kind of offense with Jacoby Bri sett and the pa sing game has suddenly been competent as the running game has faded. Still, their group of wide receivers and tight end Mike Gesicki can do only so much on the other side of Brady. Brian Flores can scheme his Nick Boyle Jersey pa s defense well a la Bill Belichick, but for a second straight week, the Bucs will lean well on Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones and the running game with more big sacks and takeaways from the defense.

    Pick: Buccaneers win 30-13 and cover the spread.

    Saints(-2.5, 43.5o/u) at Washington

    Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

    Washington's defense has been a major disappointment all-around but gets a break here against a team with a limited and inconsistent offense around Alvin Kamara. New Orleans will continue to toggle Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill at quarterback based on situation. The Saints' defense can be exploited plenty with Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin and a positive game script is neededto rev up a dormant WFT pa s rush. Taylor Heinicke turns in another winning performance at home to push his team above . Tony Jefferson Jersey 500 while the Saints drop below that even mark.

    Pick: Washington wins 23-20.

    Lions at Vikings(-10, 49.5 o/u)

    Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

    The Lions have been doing their best to play hard and get a win but their defense keeps going further in the tank and now the injuries are starting to pile up, too. The Vikings like to attack bad teams with Kirk Cousins and are due for another domination with its defense playing more the way Mike Zimmer likes. Jared Goff is in for another rough afternoon with limited receivers vs. Cousins, who gets to do whatever he wants with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

    Pick: Vikings win 34-17 and cover the spread.


    Broncos (-1.5, 39.5 o/u) at SteelersSunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

    The Steelers desperately need a win at 1-3 and unfortunately it takes a team with a worse QB situation than theirs with Ben Roethlisberger. Enter the Broncos, who might need to start Drew Lock over a concu sed Teddy Bridgewater against a tricky pa s defense in a potential one-dimensional attack. Pittsburgh has to win games with D and Matt Judon Jersey grinding ground game with rookie Najee Harris and this battle ofattrition is just what it needs at home.

    Pick: Steelers win 17-14.

    Packers (-3, 50.5 o/u) at Bengals

    Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

    The Packers know they will have their hands full with another 3-1 team from the other North. Their pa s rushmight be down two Smiths and shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder Hayden Hurst Jersey ) will be a big absence against Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They will need to win this with Aaron Rodgers outdueling Joe Burrow vs. the Bengals' cornerbacks. Rodgers gets a little more from his fellow Aaron (Jones) running than Burrow gets from his fellow Joe (Mixon) to win on the road.

    Pick: Packers win 27-24but fail to cover the spread.

    Patriots (-8.5, 39.5o/u) at Texans

    Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

    Following the revenge game against Brady, Belichick gets to prepare his pa s defense for another rookie quarterback, Davis Mills. After some pregame pleasantries with his former personnel colleagueNick Caserio, the coach will make it rough on the struggling Mills while also containing his go-to guy, former Patriots receiver Brandin Cooks. New England's own confident rookie QB, Mac Jones, turns in another strong performance and this time is rewarded with a definitive victory.

    Pick: Patriots win 24-7 and cover the spread.


    Bears at Raiders (-5.5, 44.5 o/u)

    Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

    The Bears are an offensive work in progre s and are playing games with their starting quarterback decision. Their defense has been great making plays at times and leaky at other times. Chicago has cla sic inconsistency at 2-2 but have a few skill players to cause Las Vegas concerns, especially if David Montgomery (knee) doesn't need to mi s time. The Raiders have played well at home with Derek Carr and should overachieve to the required level on defense.

    Tyus Bowser Jersey Pick: Raiders win 23-19but fail to cover the spread.

    Browns at Chargers(-2.5, 47.5o/u) Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

    The Browns have one big advantage in this matchup: Their run blocking and their pair of special backs, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They are built to attack the Chargers' weakne ses well and can avoid their strengths. The Dawg Poundalso will have a good traveling crowd for backup. Justin Herber